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By: Ed Bain

Handicapping publications are filled with writers who are labeled experts; at times these experts will mention an angle they claim is a good bet.  They will point out a couple of wins to show something that was discovered works. When I hear the word angles, I know enough to stay away because of two questions: Will that angle really work over the long term? Will that expert track that angle for a year and then show the results?

I have been tracking racing statistics for over 12 years and during this time I developed a stat I bet called the 4 + 30.  This statistic means the trainer has produced at least 4 wins or more plus has a 30% win rate or higher on this trainer move.  In comparison the validity of 4 wins and a 30% win rate or higher is not an accident. 1 win could be an accident, 2 wins is a trend, 3 wins is evidence and 4 wins is a bet.

March first will be the one-year anniversary of my AUTOMATICS which are high percentage trainer statistics that produce a positive Return On Investment and are designed to make money over the long term. I have maintained records on these AUTOMATICS for 12 months and 12 months is a substantial amount of time to track a statistic and show results.

In this time frame there were 1,004 AUTOMATICS to bet and they produced 301 wins for a 30% win rate.

465 win/placed for a 46% win/place rate. 

582 were in the money for a 58% show rate.

The average win mutuel was $6.80.

If one bet all the AUTOMATICS The Return On Investment (ROI) was $2.04 or a 2% profit.

The statistics include Layoffs, Claims and Debut trainer moves. The Claiming AUTOMATICS out performed the Layoff and Debut AUTOMATICS.

Out of all the AUTOMATICS combined the Claiming stats had 417 bets or about 41% of the 1,004 automatics; there were 131 wins on the various claiming moves for a 31% win rate and a $2 ROI of $2.38.

1st after a claim in a route produced the most profit a $2 ROI of $3.39.  There were 51 plays with 14 wins for a 27% win rate and an average win mutuel of $12.38.

3rd after a claim in a sprint had the best hit rate, producing 40 AUTOMATICS and 18 wins for a 45% hit rate and an average win mutuel of $7.02 and a $2 ROI of $3.16.

3rd after a claim in a route AUTOMATICS produced 6 races and 1 win for 16% win rate and the 1 win paid $4.20.

4th after a claim wasn’t very productive, 3 AUTOMATICS that went 0 for 3.

1st After a claim in a sprint produced the most AUTOMATICS to bet. There were 185 with 69 wins for a 37% hit rate, an average win mutuel of $6.01 and a $2 ROI of $2.24.

Debut trainer AUTOMATIC moves produced 71 and had 16 wins for a 22% win rate an average win mutuel of $7.21 and a $2 ROI of $1.63.

The first race in a debut in a sprint race produced the most AUTOMATICS in Debut races, 22 with 7 wins for a 31% hit rate and an average win mutuel of $8.72 and an ROI of $2.77.

Only 7% of the overall AUTOMATICS came from Debut races.

Layoff stats produced the most AUTOMATICS, 516 and that represented 51% of the 1,004 automatics.  There were 154 wins which is also 51% of the total 310 wins. The hit rate for the trainer Layoff AUTOMATIC statistic was 30% and the average win mutuel on the 154 hits was $6.07 with a $2 ROI of $1.82.

1st after a layoff in a sprint race had the most AUTOMATICS, 166 with 54 winners for a 32% hit rate an average win mutuel of $6.88 and a $2 ROI of $2.23.

2nd after a layoff in a sprint race produced the largest win mutuel, $13.34 and a $2 ROI of $2.74 with 34 AUTOMATICS and 7 wins for a 20% win rate.

Turf Paradise a racetrack in Arizona had 61 AUTOMATICS go to post and 19 won for a 31% win rate the average win mutuel of $9.64 and a $2 ROI of $2.97.

Tampa had the highest hit rate for the AUTOMATICS.  There were 36 starts with 15 wins for a 41% win rate, an average win mutuel of $4.81 that broke break with a $2 ROI.

Troy Bainum from Turf Paradise had the best $2 ROI with the AUTOMATICS, $5.96.  He had 27 AUTOMATICS with 11 wins for a 40% win rate and his average win mutuel was $12.18. Troy also produced the largest AUTOMATIC hit on November 19^th, 2005; he had a 1st After a claim in a route race that paid $78.60.

Trainer Kirk Ziadie at Tampa Bay had 21 AUTOMATICS this year and 12 won for a 57% win rate and an average win mutuel of $5.21 and a $2 ROI of $2.98.

There is rumor around racing that says is it's impossible to make money betting on trainers Bobby Frankel and Todd Pletcher.

When I bet these two trainers, I only bet their AUTOMATICS.

East Coast trainer Howard Wolfendale had 30 AUTOMATICS run in Maryland and Delaware and he hit with 13 for a 43% hit rate. His winners average 8/5 per win mutuel which paid $5.56 and a $2 ROI of $2.41.

Trainers Robert Klesaris went 0 for 7 for his AUTOMATICS and Jerry Hollendorfer went 1 for 11 for a 9% hit rate.

Cole Norman produced the most AUTOMATIC runners, 89 and he won with 27 for a 30% win rate.  His average win mutuel was $5.83 on his 27 winners and his $2 ROI was $1.78 or a loss of 22 cents on each of his 89 AUTOMATICS.

2005 was unfortunately filled with quite a few natural disasters.  Early in the year with your help, we raised almost $50,000 for the victims of the Tsunami. By the time September rolled around hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. We knew most people, including ourselves had exhausted the funds we could give.  We wanted to help and decided the best way was to offer something and I updated the list of the AUTOMATICS to raise money for these Katrina victims.   Thanks to many of you, we had some new purchases and some reorders and we donated the entire proceeds from these sales to these victims.

In the updated list of AUTOMATICS there will be some changes:

Trainers who are not maintaining a positive ROI will be removed. Trainers that do not maintain a 30% win rate will also be removed. This will happen every time we update.  Keep in mind that even though a trainer is removed from the list, it does not mean they will not hit.  They were removed from the list because they went through a string of not hitting.  Some of the trainers that are added to this new list could very well be trainers that were previously removed because they went through a string loses and are now winning again.

Because of the outstanding results on the claiming trainers, I will add in more of them from my database; all the ones added will have at least a 30% win rate and a positive ROI.

My AUTOMATICS totaled 1,004 bets with 301 wins for a 30% win rate; an average win mutuel of $6.80 and a $2 ROI of $2.04. That proves any player can wager and make a living if they are betting with the correct information. 
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